MALAYSIA’S EXTREME WEATHER CHANGE: FROM HEAVY RAIN TO DRY SEASON 2026
Our country is currently facing a “weather whiplash” phenomenon. We are set to shift from unusually heavy rainfall episodes to drier weather expectations in 2026, driven by ENSO-neutral conditions that bring new environmental risks.
Here is a summary of the country’s weather projections:
Behind the Heavy Rain: A 1°C increase in global temperature allows the air to hold 4% more water vapour.
As a result, we recorded a month’s worth of rainfall in just one day (383mm in 24 hours compared to a monthly average of ~200mm)
While the monsoon cycle remains consistent, thunderstorms during the monsoon transition are now becoming more extreme and violent.
Transition to ENSO-Neutral: The country is expected to shift to the ENSO-Neutral phase by April, and this neutral weather pattern is expected to continue until August.
Long-Term Forecast 2026:
We are expected to experience below normal rainfall.
Affected Areas: The states of Sarawak, Johor, and Selangor are forecast to experience a significant decrease in rainfall starting mid-2026.
Disaster Risk: These drier atmospheric conditions will increase the risk of haze, as well as forest and peat fires.
Stay aware of current weather warnings and plan your activities wisely. Together we are prepared for climate change.
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